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Amid the considerable disarray surrounding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “run” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, one thing is clear – these actions create a deeply alarming precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States has a grim history of meddling, military incursions, and control in the region, but the recent overnight operation witnessed its first major military attack on South American land. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Trump proclaimed.

The decision to unilaterally attack another independent nation and seize its president – mere days after he stated a desire for negotiations – possesses far-reaching consequences. We all have reason to be worried.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has suggested that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and rejected prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other elements of the decapitated regime are far more intransigent.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who was elected promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is turning it into a renegade nation.

He believes that the America's power enables it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: witness the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He promises that the oil resources of Venezuela means this latest episode “will pay for itself”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came without UN resolutions of any kind or authorization from lawmakers; Democrats were not even informed and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to obliterate them.

Put aside the signal this transmits to global powers like Russia and China, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will almost certainly fuel further adventurism.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

Few believe the excuse that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is propelled by the lure of oil as well as a desire to project strength, the ideology of some in his administration, and the quest for a legacy as his support at home declines.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been shockingly muted. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode emphasizes the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could still pressure him to redirect his gaze inward – but escalating insurance prices, public anxiety over the economy and ongoing controversies increase his appetite for distraction.

We are not yet 12 months into his four-year term. The international community may regret it if they remain quiet at this juncture, given what – and who – could be next.