Starmer's Backers Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to parliament. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.

Serious Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process

A number of members on the party's powerful NEC have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is primarily due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to head off any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly contest the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all before any possible leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

Several sources also shared fears about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the body could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

However, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a significant campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.

The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.